Free · Editorially independent
Editorial policyPolymarket is a decentralised prediction market on Polygon where users buy and sell outcome shares (Yes/No) on real-world events using USDC. Prices reflect crowd-sourced probabilities — a 70¢ Yes share implies a 70% market-implied chance. Outcomes are resolved via UMA's optimistic oracle. Polymarket processed billions in volume during the 2024 US election and remains the dominant on-chain prediction market in 2026.
Polymarket is the world's largest decentralised prediction market, letting users trade on real-world event outcomes — elections, economic data, sports, and crypto events — using USDC on Polygon.
Skip this What is Polymarket? On-Chain Prediction Markets Explained explainer if you wanted a first wallet setup or a CEX account. It covers how the protocol works and who it is not for. How-tos and comparisons are linked where they exist.
Polymarket is a decentralised prediction market platform where users trade on the outcomes of real-world events — US elections, Federal Reserve decisions, sports championships, crypto protocol launches, and geopolitical developments. Unlike sportsbooks or traditional betting, Polymarket prices are set by an open order book of traders, making market prices a real-time, money-weighted probability estimate.
Polymarket runs on Polygon using USDC as collateral. Users deposit USDC, buy outcome tokens (typically binary Yes/No shares priced between $0.01 and $0.99), and redeem winning shares for $1.00 at resolution. Losing shares expire worthless. The platform has become a widely cited source of event probabilities by media, traders, and other DeFi protocols building structured products on top of prediction market data.
Polymarket does not use a centralised referee. Outcomes are resolved through UMA's optimistic oracle: a proposer posts the result on-chain, and anyone can dispute it by posting a bond. If undisputed after the challenge window, the market settles. Disputes go to UMA token holder votes.
Oracle resolution is the primary security surface for prediction markets — incorrect resolution can cause major losses. Polymarket's 2026 $5M Cantina bug bounty specifically targeted UMA adapter contracts (NegRiskUmaCtfAdapter, UmaCtfAdapter) as highest-priority scope.
Convex, Curve, Resupply, Inverse Finance and Frax share collateral, gauges and stablecoin rails. Read the flywheel first if you are new to the stack.
FAQ
Polymarket is a decentralised prediction market on Polygon where users trade Yes/No outcome shares on real-world events using USDC.
Share prices reflect market-implied probabilities. A Yes share at $0.72 implies a 72% chance of the event occurring, according to traders.
Availability varies by jurisdiction. Polymarket has faced US regulatory action and geo-restrictions. Users must check local laws before participating.
Outcomes are resolved via UMA's optimistic oracle — proposed on-chain, challengeable by disputers, with UMA token holder votes for contested cases.
Polymarket operates on Polygon. Users deposit and withdraw USDC; outcome tokens are ERC-1155 conditional tokens.
Polymarket is peer-to-peer with transparent on-chain order books and no house edge on odds — prices are set by traders, not a bookmaker margin.
Polymarket has posted a $5 million bug bounty on Cantina security marketplace, opening its entire infrastructure — smart contracts, UMA oracle adapters, and web application — to public vulnerability disclosure in one of the largest bug bounties in DeFi history.
Chainlink is the dominant decentralised oracle network powering price feeds for Aave, Compound, and most major DeFi protocols — plus CCIP cross-chain messaging and the Data Streams product for low-latency institutional data.
Uniswap is the default Ethereum AMM: swap from a wallet, or provide liquidity in a price range. Verdict-first guide covering V3, V4 hooks, UNI governance, and who should use a CEX or Jupiter instead.