Glossary · P
Polymarket
The largest decentralised prediction market by volume, running on Polygon. Users buy YES/NO shares on real-world events (elections, crypto prices, economic outcomes). During the 2024 US presidential election, Polymarket processed over $600M in volume and was widely cited for its predictive accuracy.
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How Polymarket works in practice
Polymarket is a prediction market where users trade shares in the outcome of real-world events. Prices sit between zero and one and read directly as implied probability, which is why the platform is often cited as a forecasting source rather than only a trading venue.
Worked example
A contract resolving to 1 if an event occurs and 0 if it does not, trading at 0.35, implies a 35% market probability. Buying at 0.35 and being right returns 1 — a gain of about 186%.
Figures are illustrative and chosen to be checkable, not live market data.
The mistake that costs people money
Resolution risk is the real risk. Ambiguous wording, disputed sources or an unexpected outcome all get settled by a resolution process that may not agree with your reading of the question. Availability is also restricted in several jurisdictions.
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Polymarket: common questions
- What is Polymarket?
- The largest decentralised prediction market by volume, running on Polygon. Users buy YES/NO shares on real-world events (elections, crypto prices, economic outcomes). During the 2024 US presidential election, Polymarket processed over $600M in volume and was widely cited for its predictive accuracy.
- How does Polymarket work in practice?
- Polymarket is a prediction market where users trade shares in the outcome of real-world events. Prices sit between zero and one and read directly as implied probability, which is why the platform is often cited as a forecasting source rather than only a trading venue.
- Can you give an example of Polymarket?
- A contract resolving to 1 if an event occurs and 0 if it does not, trading at 0.35, implies a 35% market probability. Buying at 0.35 and being right returns 1 — a gain of about 186%.
- What do people get wrong about Polymarket?
- Resolution risk is the real risk. Ambiguous wording, disputed sources or an unexpected outcome all get settled by a resolution process that may not agree with your reading of the question. Availability is also restricted in several jurisdictions.
- Where can I learn more about Polymarket?
- Our full guide, Prediction Markets Explained, covers Polymarket in depth with worked scenarios and the risks involved. This glossary entry is the short definition.